AMEYA360:China, CHIPS and Supply Chain Disruption
  Sanctions by the U.S. and its allies will, in the long term, limit China’s ability to manufacture leading-edge chips. But in the short term, China’s ability to produce more mature products may be a boon to the nation, said Richard Barnett, CMO of Supplyframe, a supply chain intelligence platform.  China, CHIPS and Supply Chain Disruption  A recent update to the U.S. CHIPS Act is discouraging international high-tech investment in China, according to market research firm TrendForce. The act now bans beneficiaries from investing more than $100,000 to expand existing facilities in China, Russia, Iran and North Korea for 10 years from the date of a CHIPS Act award. This move will further reduce the willingness of multinational semiconductor companies to invest in China for the next decade.  TSMC, for example, has expansion plans in both the U.S. and China. TSMC’s development at its Fab 16 plant in China has so far focused 28nm processes, according to TrendForce. Its plans for 16/12nm and 28/22nm processes at Fab 16 in China are limited for the next decade upon receiving the U.S. subsidies. Furthermore, 85 percent of the output must meet local market demand in China.The U.S. CHIPS Act could impact TSMC's plan to produce chips in China  Such measures only add uncertainty to an already-stressed supply chain, said Barnett. “Bottom line – constrained supply will linger for select devices in H2.”  Keeping China in check  U.S. restrictions on shipments to China of graphics processors and AI accelerators and other sweeping U.S. export controls mean that the expansion of both Chinese foundries and multinational foundries in China will be suppressed to varying degrees — regardless of whether they are advanced or mature processes, said Barnett.  The impact from restrictions on on fab equipment is still 18 to 36 months out, he added, as it applies to new machines  and new facilities. “There’s a lag between new equipment orders and new lines going up,” he said. “For mature, existing equipment it’s likely China is seeking alternative service providers. There’s little visibility into equipment orders and capacity plans that were made a year or more ago.”  Trade restrictions and sanctions could intensify further, he added, expanding more completely into semiconductor and passive component manufacturing and design intellectual property. This would spur China to seek IP from other Asian countries.  Chinese IC design companies are already shifting existing and new orders to Taiwanese foundries under pressure from clients, TrendForce reports. Tier-2 and -3 companies such as VIS and PSMC, which mainly focus on mature processes, are capturing orders rerouted from Chinese foundries. TrendForce predicts this shift in orders will ensure recovery for foundries currently impacted by inventory adjustment and low capacity-utilization rates, especially from 2H 2023 until 2024.
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Release time:2023-04-26 11:33 reading:1072 Continue reading>>
Obscured Policies in Taiwan’s FIT Scheme to Impact on Sustainable Development of Local Solar Supply Chain
The Taiwanese Ministry of Economic Affairs (MOEA) has announced a 10.17% decrease to next year’s feed-in tariff (FIT) rates for solar PV installations, which is much higher than the average decrease of 4.25% in the global PV industry. This will make 2019 a tough year for Taiwan’s PV industry, with wider-than-expected impacts on the whole market, says EnergyTrend, a division of TrendForce.According to EnergyTrend analyst Sharon Chen, since the second half of 2018, local PV companies have successively planned the construction of large-scale ground-mounted PV systems for 2019. Overall, the capacity is close to 1 GW. However, developers in this sector face myriad construction challenges. These include equipment that is resistant to salt corrosion for at least 20 years; and the costs of building substations.Indeed, contrary to the rules for rooftop PV, most ground-mounted PV systems require developers to build a booster substation by themselves, meaning the costs for grid connection account for around 25% of the total installation costs. In an environment where grid connection costs cannot be reduced and the FIT is greatly cut, EPC companies need to limit equipment costs by using cheaper modules and inverters, for instance, in order to maintain a high internal rate of return (IRR).EnergyTrend analyst Sharon Chen points out that current module prices are US$0.37/W on the spot market. In this situation, the IRR will be just 2.60% after the FIT cuts, while it will take 15 years for companies to achieve a break-even point. Meanwhile, in 2019, PV projects will only receive a 6% markup on FITs when they are fitted with VPC-recognized modules and inverters. As such, companies may increase quotes to cover the associated costs of certification. To combat this, modules prices need to be lowered to $0.30/W or less to make IRR rebound to 5%. However, we believe that even the most competitive module manufacturers in Taiwan may not be able to offer a price as low as this, let alone the prices needed for inverters. Overall, Taiwanese manufacturers will find it difficult to follow the global price decline trends, due to high production costs, meaning modules and inverters made by Chinese manufacturers will continue to be more cost competitive. It has been a global trend to phase out FITs for solar PV projects. EnergyTrend believes that the best way is to make clear the annual decline in rates to 2025, and to use the subsidy to assist in the development of energy storage, which can supplement intermittent energy sources like solar energy. In this way, companies will also have a chance to assess the risks themselves, so that those which cannot fit in will be naturally eliminated from the industry. In the long term, the solar energy industry needs healthy and stable development.
Release time:2018-12-24 00:00 reading:1093 Continue reading>>
SEMI testifies against third round of U.S. tariffs citing damage to semiconductor <span style='color:red'>supply chain</span>
In testimony last week before a U.S. government interagency panel considering tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods, SEMI called for the removal of nearly 100 tariff lines, all of which cover items critical to the semiconductor manufacturing process, including materials and machines.Jonathan Davis, global vice president of advocacy at SEMI, explained in his testimony that while SEMI strongly supports efforts to better protect valuable intellectual property (IP), tariffs will not help address Chinese trade practices, and will ultimately have significant and unintended consequences. SEMI asserts that these tariffs will harm companies in the semiconductor supply chain by increasing business costs, introducing uncertainty, and stifling innovation. Collectively, SEMI estimates that this round of tariffs will cost its 400 U.S. members more than tens of millions annually in additional duties. All told, SEMI estimates that all U.S. and Chinese retaliatory tariffs will cost members nearly $700 million in annual duties.SEMI’s full written comments note that these tariffs, on top of those already in force and the retaliatory tariffs, will hamstring the industry. The tariffs seem to target U.S. firms for simply operating in China. Given that tools and materials are extremely complex, precise, and difficult to manufacture, it is unreasonable to believe that a constituent component can simply be replaced with a part from another source. Further, this U.S. government approach does not take into account that many items  subject to these tariffs are not available, at sufficient quality and cost, from domestic sources, or even non-Chinese sources. We stand steadfast in our belief that this trade action will raise prices, put thousands of high-paying and high skill jobs at risk, and curb growth.Over the past four months, SEMI submitted written comments and offered testimony on the two previous rounds of tariffs, citing the damaging impact tariffs would have on the U.S. semiconductor industry. The first round of tariffs – on $34 billion worth of Chinese goods – took effect July 6, and the second round – targeting $16 billion in Chinese imports – will be imposed on August 23. The tariffs hit machines and tools central to the semiconductor industry, including equipment used to manufacture wafers, boules, and chips as well as test, inspection and sensing equipment.
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Release time:2018-08-28 00:00 reading:1333 Continue reading>>
Strong 2Q’18 global <span style='color:red'>supply chain</span> growth but second half slowing
2Q’18 Electronic Supply Chain Growth UpdateChart 1 is a preliminary estimate of global growth of the electronic supply chain by sector for 2Q’18 vs 2Q’17. Note the strong performance of semiconductors, SEMI capital equipment and passive components.Chart 2 gives preliminary 2Q’18 world electronic equipment growth by type. Global electronic equipment sales rose an estimated 9%+ when consolidated into US dollars in the second quarter of this year compared to the same quarter in 2017.Based on this, data global electronic equipment sales growth appears to have now peaked on a 3/12 growth basis for this present business cycle (Chart 3).As a caution these charts are based on a combination of actual company financial reports and estimates for companies that have not yet reported their calendar second quarter financial results. A number of large companies have yet to report but these early estimates have historically been close to final growth values.  We will update Chart 1 next month.Semiconductor Capital Equipment Business CycleSemiconductor capital equipment sales are historically very volatile, with their growth fluctuating MUCH MORE than electronic equipment (Chart 4). However, both series appear to have peaked on a 3/12 basis for this current cycle.Semiconductors, SEMI capital equipment and Taiwan chip foundry sales all are seeing slower growth. 3/12 values >1 still indicate an expansion but slower growth is indicated.Supply chain performance in the second half of this year bears careful watching!Walt Custer of Custer Consulting Group is an analyst focused on the global electronics industry.
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Release time:2018-08-15 00:00 reading:1104 Continue reading>>
Worldwide Supply Chain Management Software Revenue Grew 13.9 Percent in 2017
The latest market share data from Gartner, Inc. shows that adoption of supply chain management (SCM) software accelerated significantly in 2017. Total worldwide market revenue grew 13.9 percent to reach a total of $12.2 billion in 2017."The SCM market’s revenue performed well in 2017, continuing the trend of accelerating growth from recent years. This is happening because SCM technologies are a key component of delivering digital business strategies," said Balaji Abbabatulla, research director at Gartner (see Table 1). "SCM technologies create digital value by optimizing the flow of products, services and related information from source to customer and from customer to source.""The top five vendors in the SCM market all increased revenue, but only JDA and Infor grew their market share by outperforming the total market growth," said Mr. Abbabatulla. "The 'other vendors' category is growing significantly faster than the top five market incumbents, but the top five rankings remained the same in 2017."Mr. Abbabatulla continued by saying: "Smaller cloud-native vendors enjoyed an average revenue growth of 41.4 percent in 2017. The top five vendors are defending their market share by pivoting toward cloud-first strategies and quickly introducing new products through development, acquisition or partnerships on their cloud platform."Cloud offerings are driving growth in the market partly because more midsize organisations are adopting SCM solutions to drive digital business models. Midsize organisations help bolster revenue growth because they are net new customers of SCM products and are not bound by replacement and upgrade cycles from legacy investment."Cloud solutions typically have lower barriers to entry and are more easily scalable, and are therefore a better fit for midsize organisations looking at SCM for competitive advantage," said Mr. Abbabatulla. "We expect that vendors offering a well-defined, vertical-industry-oriented strategy for midsize organisations will grow rapidly over the next five years."Another source of competitive advantage for SCM vendors has been effective incorporation of artificial intelligence (AI) into their products. "While adoption levels of AI vary across sub market segments, we expect it to drive revenue growth as AI technologies and tools mature," said Mr. Abbabatulla. "This is because AI can bring productivity and user experience improvements by automating routine tasks and providing more effective support to complex decisions."
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Release time:2018-07-19 00:00 reading:1032 Continue reading>>
Trump's Tariff List to Impact Supply Chain
  Electronics industry executives and trade groups are working to analyze the potential impact of the Trump administration's list of $50 billion worth of Chinese imports that could be subject to 25 percent tariffs in protest of Chinese policies around technology and intellectual property deemed unfair. The list contains scores of products used in the electronics manufacturing supply chain, but is largely devoid of the finished consumer electronics goods that many feared it could contain.  The list  of about 1,300 categories of products — unveiled Tuesday (April 3) — is wide ranging, including products in industries from technology to manufacturing, medical and transportation. It includes a handful of consumer appliances such as some televisions and VCRs, and a host of electronic components such as printed circuit boards, caps and wires.  "The lack of a lot of consumer products indicate the administration doesn't want to hurt consumers, at least not directly," said Kevin Krewell, a principal analyst with Tirias Research, told EE Times. "But tariffs often do lead to higher prices for finished goods."  Krewell described the products on the list as "an assortment of items that have been compiled for very specific product areas where the government feels China has been anti-competitive." According to the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative, which compiled the list, the products on the list benefit from what the Trump administration calls China's "unfair trade practices related to the forced transfer of U.S. technology and intellectual property." The agency said the list was created with an eye toward minimizing impact on the U.S. economy.  The list includes items used in semiconductor manufacturing such as rubber or plastic molds and instruments for checking the electrical properties of chips and optical equipment for inspecting wafers of chips. It also includes some types of semiconductors such as diodes, LEDs and others.  Jamie Girard, senior director of public policy for the SEMI trade group, told EE Times that he was still in the process of soliciting feedback on the potential impact of the items on the list from members of SEMI, which represents semiconductor manufacturing equipment and materials suppliers.  "We are concerned with a number of the items on the list and the impact that a 25 percent tariff will have on the global supply chain," Girard told EE Times in an interview.  Girard said that he had expected the list to contain more finished electronic goods. He added that he was surprised to see any products related to semiconductor manufacturing equipment on the list.  "The administration has been very clear that the goal is to reduce the trade deficit with China," Girard said, adding that the U.S. actually has a trade surplus with China in semiconductor equipment. "To target an area where the U.S. has a trade surplus caught me by surprise."  The Semiconductor Industry Association trade group did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the list.  Trump announced earlier this month that he would direct the U.S. Trade Representative to propose a list of products from China that could be targeted with import tariffs. The proposal represents the clear escalation of a budding trade war between the world's two largest economies over a number of issues, chiefly a trade deficit estimated to have been about $375 billion last year. U.S. politicians and tech firms have also objected for years to a number of Chinese government policies, including lax enforcement of intellectual property protections.  The list will next undergo a public comment and review period, including a May 15 hearing scheduled by the U.S. Trade Representative. Many believe the list will likely be culled significantly by politicians and industry groups prior to ever going into effect, leading some to speculate that it is more of a negotiating tactic.  Trepidation over what the impact the tariffs might have on the global electronics supply chain remains, though many firms are likely to breathe a little easier now that the list has been unveiled. While many Western electronics executives have at a minimum genuine concern over Chinese policies regarding intellectual property protection and foreign ownership of firms based in China, most economists agree that tariffs generally harm the economy.  Speculation over what might appear on the list illustrates what is to many people the folly of imposing country-specific tariffs on electronics products in the age of globalization. For example, an iPhone — a product that some people actually feared might end up on the tariff list — consists of components marketed by companies based in the U.S., Europe and Asia, cobbled together in China by a Taiwanese ODM for a multinational corporation headquartered in the U.S., Apple.  Some vehicles marketed by U.S.-based General Motors and assembled in China are expected to be subject to the proposed tariffs.  "It is really difficult to put tariffs on finished electronics goods because of the global nature of our industry," said Jim McGregor, principal analyst at Tirias Research. "The semiconductors may be fabed in the U.S., Taiwan, Europe or Japan; the final assembly is likely done in China, Malaysia, or somewhere else in Asia; the system assembly could be done in China or Mexico; and the final device could enter the country from any number of other ports around the world."  While semiconductors and finished electronic goods themselves are likely to be spared from the added, tariffs, some of the raw materials impacting chips and electronics could be impacted, McGregor said.  "t appears that this tit-for-tat tariff war between the U.S. and China is really about political positioning in specific regions and markets," McGregor said. "Electronics are likely to be one of the last segments impacted if the escalation continues. I am, however, amazed at the length of the list."
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Release time:2018-04-08 00:00 reading:1144 Continue reading>>

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